Taking the Pulse of the Mobile Tech Industry (2010-2011)

One of the cool things about helping judge/select the mobile sessions for SXSW Interactive Festival is that it is like taking the pulse of the Mobile industry — how the mobile industry and technologists feel about the state of things.

This year’s mobility and new technology submissions show how Geo & Social, AR and Big-Data continue to evolve and are key technology areas in the mind of many mobile technologists and marketers alike; a not surprising trend. Some NFC/RFID and barcodes came up. And the topics of native vs. web continues but not as strong, same with Flash, perhaps indicating native as the preferred approach to mobile apps, at least for now.

A lot of very good sessions this year; it was a bit tough to choose… congrats to all who submitted.

ceo

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Carnival of the Mobilists #236

Check out this week’s Carnival of the Mobilists (#236) at MSearchGroove with topics on Mobile Games, Mobile Web, Mobile Data, Bible Apps, Trends and my entry on NFC. Enjoy…

ceo

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Click-through rates fall

So today I had a realization…

But before I continue, a question: how often do you click on an Ad, or better, when was the last time you clicked on an Ad?

Most people that I ask answer this question as follows: “not very often” or “long-time ago”.

Now the realization…

Today I saw someone clicking on an Ad, multiple times. This person *didn’t realize* it was an Ad, but part of the app!

(From the app-design perspective, this is “great” and it validates the fact that if you make Ads look as part of your app itself that people will click more often.)

So it occurred to me, could it be the long-tail of click-throughs come from people who don’t really know that what they are clicking on are Ads? And could this be the reason why all the people I ask (mostly folks who know computers and the Web and what are Ads are) don’t click on Ads that often? And also is the the reason why Click-through rates fall but interactions continue good performance?

And does this mean that *over time* as people continue to get more educated about the Web and Ads, that they will not click on Ads as often? Thus, Ads as a revenue model is in jeopardy?

I think so…

ceo

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Follow up discussion on Apple and NFC; Oh and Nokia

Back at Forum Oxford a lot of interesting debates occur. The topic on Apple and NFC is no exception. Being a European forum is no surprise how many Nokia fans get all ticked off about Apple, because things like NFC has been championed by Nokia (with no real success). One of the forum members is a well respected (no BS) Mobilist that I follow. His name is Dean Bubley. I thought about posting here one of our exchanges at the forum:

Dean>> “I think this is one of those rare occasions where Nokia gets it right (i.e. dropping NFC) and Apple gets it wrong (embracing NFC).”

CEO>> Nokia continues pushing for NFC. Last July they re-iterated their commitment.

Dean>> “Nokia did a bunch of trials, which despite the PR hyperbole were absolutely not “successful”. There is no clear consumer need, no business model, and a myriad of technical and user interaction problems.”

CEO>> Consumer feedback from trials (at least in the USA) have been positive. (note to self: try to find the results for the trials)

Dean>> “Quite rightly, Nokia realised that adding NFC to phones wouldn’t make them any extra money, any time soon (or indeed, probably ever).”

CEO>> See my comment above. The problem is the operator was not distributing (ordering) the Nokia NFC handsets. The problem is the operator wants control via the SIM card. But, Nokia will push forward with the non-Single Wire Protocol (SWP) handsets next year. Nokia and the other handset manufacturers realize that forcing NFC-app enablement via the SIM only will just slow things down/won’t work.

Dean>> “In particular, users would have to be insane to trust mobile payments to an operator rather than a 3rd party.”

CEO>> Again, this is why handset manufacturers will be offering non-SWP NFC handsets as well (via microSD NFC?). This will allow for 3rd party applications vs. operator-centered/controlled, where apps are restricted to a few big-name players.

So let’s see how Apple will approach this; very likely by not using the SIM/SWP approach.

And yes, part of NFC solutions are the services on the cloud. This approach would allow and leverage the developer ecosystem to bring useful apps to the consumer.

About ROI, it will be there via the apps similar today, plus perhaps additional transaction-based revenue.

And let’s not equate NFC to payments only; there are other interesting scenarios we will see once this is made available to the developer ecosystem.

ceo

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Apple and NFC — iPhone will trigger the Mobile RFID/NFC revolution

There is a lot of noise/rumors about Apple and NFC after Apple’s hiring of NFC expert sparks digital wallet rumors.

NFC is one of those technologies that I have written quite a bit about (see my NFC/Touch page) and that I believe will change how people use their handsets. Unfortunately it has taken forever to hit the mass market; blame the operators…

And as I’ve previously written, I’ll say it again in 2010 — Even though Nokia was first in understanding the power of proximity and had introduced some of the first handsets, it is the iPhone what will drive the NFC revolution…

Related to this see:

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SXSW 2011 PanelPicker | Vote now; voting ends Aug 27, 2010

A reminder that the 2011 SXSW Interactive PanelPicker community voting is open and that voting ends Aug 27, 2010. SXSW Interactive is on March 11-15, 2011.

For SXSW Interactive alone there are 2344 sessions! Wow. And for mobile/wireless and mobile apps there are 96 sessions.

Please remember that SXSW is a community-driven event and that your vote literally accounts for about 30% of the decision-making process for any given programming slot.

So go ahead, find the proposals (and mobile proposals!) that most interest you and vote!

Voting ends 11:59 CDT on Friday, August 27.

See you March 11-15, 2011…

ceo

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Carnival of the Mobilists #234

This week’s Carnival of the Mobilists #234 is at TheFonecast.com. Packed with great entries by Steven Hoober, Antoine RJ Wright, Ajit Jaokar, Judy Breck, Peggy at MSearchGroove, the folks at The Fonecast and myself!

Enjoy!

ceo

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Guidelines and Best Practices for Handling Sensitive Data

Back in 2003-2004 I helped create one of the firsts location-based solutions for mobile called WorkTrack (San Francisco startup Aligo later acquired by Corrigo). Such experience helped raise my level of awareness when it comes to location (and any sensitive) information and mobile. Then back in 2005 I wrote:

Location-based applications can bring many benefits to business processes, and help create exciting social and business software, but poorly used or mismanaged, especially when applied to people or personal information, can become a major area of concern with respect to privacy.

…and with it I also wrote some guidelines for developers on using location information on mobile applications. These have been evolving since then and today can be summarized as follows:

  • Always Alert the User
  • The End-User, the Ultimate Decision Maker
  • Safeguard All Captured Information
  • Use Geofecing responsibly | Use Passive Tracking instead
  • Be responsible…

Today I read some great Best Practices for Handling Android User Data (Nick Kralevich, Android Developers Blog) that echoes similar guidelines plus other good ones that I recommend you read:

  • Maintain a privacy policy
  • Minimize permissions
  • Give your users a choice regarding data collection
  • Don’t collect unnecessary information
  • Don’t send data off the device
  • … but if you have to, use encryption and data minimization
  • Don’t use code you don’t understand
  • Don’t log device or user specific information.

Following guidelines such as the ones described above is of extreme importance; be proactive about these. Key to mobile is trust and violating the user’s trust is something you obviously want to avoid.

Related to this see my LBS page.

ceo

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The BlackBerry Ban Debacle and General Implications

And the world has suddenly gone paranoid and/or Big-Brother with RIM:

  1. In the UAE where “The issue … against BlackBerry’s super-secure encrypted services” (Reuters);
  2. In India where “Indian officials say they need to be able to intercept BlackBerry messages” (Information Week);
  3. In Indonesia where “We don’t know whether data being sent through BlackBerrys can be intercepted or read by third parties outside the country,” (USA Today).

Their arguments are around the inability by the respective governments to monitor messages due to BlackBerry’s 1) strong encryption products and RIM not willing to share the device’s master-key to break into the messages, and 2) RIM’s central Infrastructure with data-centers in Canada and the UK.

From Reuters article:

“We are very clear that any BlackBerry service that cannot be fully intercepted by our agencies must be discontinued. Offering access to data is part of the telecom licensing guidelines and has to be adhered to,” the newspaper quoted an unnamed security official as saying.

Background Info
There are two solutions for BlackBerry: 1) BlackBerry Internet Service and 2) BlackBerry Enterprise solution.

The BlackBerry Internet Service is not necessarily that secure:

Email messages and instant messages that are sent between the BlackBerry® Internet Service and your BlackBerry device use the security features of the wireless network. Messages that are sent between your messaging server and the BlackBerry Internet Service are automatically encrypted if the server supports SSL encryption.

Other encryption mechanisms include PGP and S/MIME.

On the other hand, the security in the BlackBerry Enterprise solution is super strong.

The BlackBerry Enterprise Solution offers end-to-end encryption between the BlackBerry device and the BlackBerry Enterprise Server (that resides at the enterprise’s premises) by using Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) or Triple Data Encryption Standard (Triple DES).

The BlackBerry is not PKI-based but uses symmetric cryptography, meaning that there is a master-key. In BlackBerry there is a unique master-key for each device and a per-message-key that are dynamically generated. Messages are encrypted using the per-message key, and the per-message key is in turn encrypted using the master-key. The master-key resides on the device itself as well as inside the BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES), that again resides at the enterprise’s premises and not at the operator nor Canada or the UK RIM data-centers.

The RIM folks made a public statement as follows:

“The BlackBerry security architecture for enterprise customers is based on a symmetric key system whereby the customer creates their own key and only the customer ever possesses a copy of their encryption key. RIM does not possess a “master key”, nor does any “back door” exist in the system that would allow RIM or any third party to gain unauthorized access to the key or corporate data.”

But what is that article from India Times?

India Times wrote an article BlackBerry to open code for security check that reads:

The company has offered to share with security agencies its technical codes for corporate email services, open up access to all consumer emails within 15 days and also develop tools in 6 to 8 months to allow monitoring of chats, telecom department documents (dated August 2) available with ET show.

So what is it? Is RIM opening or not? What does “technical codes for corporate email services” really means? Master-keys?

Based on BlackBerry’s architecture I don’t see how RIM can accommodate the above request for enterprise users unless RIM show the governments how to break and retrieve the master-keys from the Enterprises servers themselves. But for BlackBerry Internet Service (consumers) yes they can easily do it by just handing over the intercepted messages themselves, unless the messages are encrypted with SSL or PGP or S/MIME in which case it is not RIM’s problem.

What are the implications?

First, what all of the above means is that the issue against RIM is really against BlackBerry enterprise users (i.e. businesses) and that the argument against the central network architecture of the BlackBerry Infrastructure is really inconsequential since regardless of where the central servers reside, across the globe or local to the country, they won’t be able to easily break the symmetric encryption (remember, the master-keys don’t reside at the central data-centers anyway).

(If you think about it, regional servers would actually help RIM alleviate the management of BlackBerry handset-traffic by managing it regionally; assuming there is something to alleviate.)

So what this means is that the issue should not really be about the location of the servers themselves, but the real issue here is obviously the requests by the respective governments to monitor the messages themselves.

The next logical question is: “Must all services that cannot be intercepted must be discontinued in those countries?”

RIM is in over 175 countries and even Obama uses RIM. And the world relies daily on Public-Key cryptography and infrastructure for online transactions and secure messages. If governments were to force a change that would break PKI or BlackBerry for that matter, that will be the end of secure online transactions; you won’t be able to trust online purchases or share information in a secure fashion. If governments can break into it, so will hackers.

Shutting down the BlackBerry services seems unlikely to me. Will RIM be forced to change their architecture/infrastructure to satisfy these governments? Perhaps RIM should do a Google (as when it pulled out of China).

And how is the market responding/treating RIM because of this debacle? “RIM’s Nasdaq-listed shares [RIMM 53.39 -2.14 (-3.85%)] ended down 2.5 percent at $55.53 while its Toronto-listed shares fell 4 percent to C$56.77. (CNBC.com) — and the ironic thing is that I bet you that those same traders are BlackBerry users themselves who wouldn’t think about using their devices without strong encryption…

Related to this:

ceo

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Carnival of the Mobilists #233

This week’s Carnival of the Mobilists is at Mobsessed where you can find mobile blogging from James Roswell who writes about the Wholesale Application Community’s mission, Eric over at MobileSlate gives you an insight into the cardinal sins of Foursquare, Peggy Anne Salz interviews Alan Moore about engagement marketing, Tomi Ahonen writes about understanding the smartphone market, Andy from MobiThinking writes about Mobile awards, and yours truly writes on insights into the reasons for the mobile boom.

Enjoy…

ceo

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M2M vs. Internet of Things

Today I was reading the agenda for Mobilize, where I read the following statement:

The Internet of Things… The M2M or “Internet of Things” proposition opens up a vast new array of opportunity for carriers, entrepreneurs and consumer experiences. We look at some of the biggest markets out there – medicine, consumer goods, automotive and more. We ask what needs to be done to catalyze the opportunity and what returns these markets will yield.

But equating M2M to Internet of Things (IoT) is not proper.

M2M is defined as the technologies that allow machines, typically (small) computing sensors that perform specific tasks (intelligence) and are able to communicate or relay information as needed typically over simple protocols but more recently over Internet protocols (IP) over wireless or wireline or even SMS.

But the Internet of Things is so much more than M2M. IoT it is about interacting with the objects around us; even static non-intelligent objects and augmenting such interactions with context as provided by geo-location, time and so on. It is about interacting for example with the soda can via barcodes or with the movie poster via NFC, or with an advert on the paper via a shortcode, or with book, again via barcodes or even NFC, or in the case of M2M, communicating with machines such as the energy-meters or sensors or even your refrigerator via IP over wireless or wireline.

So M2M is not the Internet of Things, but M2M is a subset of the Internet of Things.

(Note: @tamberg responded with “M2M with non-Internet protocols lies outside IoT, so maybe M2M and IoT are intersecting rather than subsets.” For which is true where the interesting set is the subset. At the end my point is that there is a fundamental difference here and M2M and IoT must not be confused as the same thing.

Mobilize is an awesome event with great lineup, but mis-information is not a good thing. :-)

ceo

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What is next and a continuation on the theme of convergence and reasons for a mobile boom

On my previous post, Looking back — Local faster, fresher, better…, a flashback, I wrote about after how in the last 3-4 years Mobility has reached a state of adoption and commoditization that many of us have been preaching for years now.

I ended that blog/piece with a question “what is next?”

A couple of things come to mind, but these really are a continuation on the theme on convergence and the Reasons Why The Mobile/Wireless Usage Boom is Underway; the convergence between the mobile lifestyle, advanced smartphones, the advanced networks and business models:

…where if we look at what is next:

  • The mobile lifestyle continues the “Logarithmic phase” of adoption growth, for which I don’t see any slowdown for years to come;
  • On advanced handsets do we have a new handset category? Super-smartphones like the latest iPhones and Androids with increasing computing power and multitude of sensors and awesome screens with touch and snappy UIs;
  • With increased global support for advanced networks such as HSPA+ and 4G/LTE with mobile broadband network speeds that matches home/office broadband network;
  • And on the business models the continued growth of the ecosystem. On one hand, the ease of application development. On the other the App Stores and the new front-ends to these apps stores that offer improvements when compared to the native app store discovery experience. Then we have the increase in the number of developer-friendly operator services (and/or APIs) or as I like to refer the Operator Infrastructure as a Service; see On (Mobile) Cloud Computing – Multiple Perspectives to its Benefits, Drivers and Economics.

…the adoption, ecosystem and overall experience continues to get better and better and commoditization is on the way.

The focus on applications (native or web) will continue but greater focus on the data generated by the mobile handset and the applications themselves will be the next phase of innovation in mobility, all for the purpose of improving the overall contextual user experience and monetization opportunities.

ceo

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Looking back — Local faster, fresher, better…

While cleaning up my blog I encountered an old blog of mine from 2007 and 2008, before iPhone native apps became mainstream. And I am not surprised at all about how things had turned out — exactly as I was expecting. From Is Local faster, fresher, better? Many say Yes…:

Next, Apple will be releasing their SDK for the iPhone for the development of native Local apps. Let’s see what will happen there. Very cool applications are going to be created. I can’t wait to see the distribution channel: a portal for iPhone applications, or perhaps via iTunes; I believe that pain #1 for Local applications is the their discovery and download (distribution), which is why I am looking forward to see how Apple will tackle that problem. Let’s see how and what the iPhone, the mobile device that transformed the mobile web, will do for Local applications…

Same with other blog posts like this one The Problem with Mobile (2006). It is cool to look back and see it all finally happening… Right on the money!

The question now is what is next? A number of things come to mind, but that is the topic for a different blog post…

ceo

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SXSW PanelPicker 2011: Send Your Incredible (Mobile) Programming Ideas Now!

It is that time again…

The 2011 SXSW PanelPicker launched on Tuesday, June 15: see PanelPicker 2011: Send Us Your Incredible Programming Ideas Now! (SXSW blog).

The entry process for the PanelPicker continues through Friday, July 9.

Then the public voting phase on these proposals will run from Monday, August 9 through Friday, August 27.

So go ahead and submit your cool ideas, especially the your MOBILE ideas, now!

ceo

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So what is or should be Microsoft’s strategy for mobile?

So it has begun, Microsoft announced that slowing (killing) the KIN product:

“We have made the decision to focus exclusively on Windows Phone 7 and we will not ship KIN in Europe this fall as planned. Additionally, we are integrating our KIN team with the Windows Phone 7 team, incorporating valuable ideas and technologies from KIN into future Windows Phone releases. We will continue to work with Verizon in the U.S. to sell current KIN phones.”

This whole KIN thing feels to me as a “pet project” from some Microsoft high-executive who saw “social apps on the web” as the killer app and couldn’t decide how to deliver it and took forever and now realizes it is not going to work (due to timing or other). The hardest thing when creating a product is to know when to kill it. But because Microsoft waited to make this decision 1) Microsoft looks silly, 2) looks as a product failure, 3) costs millions of dollars in development and marketing and the cost of inventory for the devices that will not sell. A costly operation. The good thing about this is less distractions for the company allowing them to focus on the next generation core OS Windows Phone 7. But as a technology/product person I do see unseen benefits to this failed product: 1) product/roadmap unification, and 2) the exercise of transferring R&D/IP to the Product group. Both are important and that can be very hard to accomplish.

That said, while there still space/opportunity for the Windows mobile OS, Microsoft won’t be the leader of the space; playing catch-up is not leading.

So what is or should be Microsoft’s strategy for mobile?

For a while it has been very clear to me that Microsoft has been ignoring what probably is their most important strategy when it comes to mobile…

Obviously they are committed to the (Windows Phone 7) mobile OS, which is fine, but what about apps?

Microsoft has failed to leverage their own strength and expertise with apps. By now they could have been the leader on a number of mobile app categories, for example, productivity apps such as mobile versions of Word, PowerPoint, access to Exchange, and gaming, across *all* mobile platforms, with versions of the apps that makes the best out of the specific mobile platforms. But to accomplish this they must breakaway from the “Windows only” mentality for mobile…

I’m not sure why such a “simple” decision to rule their own app space has taken so long; no decision is a decision. If can’t decide how to make this happen just go acquire DataViz; I’m sure it is not the first time Microsoft has approached them, except this time DataBiz is going to cost more…

Microsoft, don’t ignore the apps space, your own app space…

…and from the developers perspective, don’t forget that to succeed make sure your Windows mobile environment does provide good developer support, ecosystem, app store and developer incentives.

ceo

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