Richard Monson-Haefel (author of a number of books in Java, Web Services and JMS) and who is a Sr. Analyst at the Burton Group, wrote a good piece on Andriod vs. fragmentation… I agree with most of his points.
Time will tell what will happen with Android and the industry, but it is not going to be straightforward. Unless there is a strong hand leading/managing, and yes controlling, “open and consistent” is like “water and oil”. And I am not even talking about network operators here who are the ones who decide what handets and what software runs on their networks; I am only referring to the implementation aspects such as APIs, behaviors, and so on.
ceo