From: Ovum’s report on Operator strategies for mobile broadband in emerging markets (August 7, 2009)

Mobile broadband in emerging markets is a very different proposition to that seen in mature markets. Low fixed-line penetration means that there are opportunities for a myriad of access technologies. In addition, low PC penetration makes the small screen (or handset) the leading access device. However, this also means that mobile broadband is viable as a fixed-line alternative, as long as operators can rise to the specific challenges of providing data in low ARPU markets.

Spectrum is the top market barrier for operators wanting to offer the next generation of mobile broadband and services. This is such a heavy infrastructure (from technical to business to political) effort that for this operators need the help from the goverments in the development of such mobile networks. Then come the land grabs by the operators with the deepest pockets. Subsidies and pre-paid will help promote the adoption of mobile broadband; expect Notebooks and Netbooks to play a key role on this, and keep in mind that going after emerging markets is different from markets such as the United States and Europe…

The following diagram (Ovum) illustrates the expected (initial) distribution-use of mobile broadband in emerging markets vs. the type of access technology and device, indicating that 4G networks (LTE and WiMAX) will be primarily/initially used on “big screens” or Desktops, Laptops, Netbooks. I would add that even for non-emerging markets, the big screen w.r.t. nomadic behavior will drive at first the usage of wireless/mobile broadband as in WiMAX and LTE.

The following diagram also from Ovum shows that the number of broadband users in emerging markets will be predominantly “small screens” or handsets; note that mobile broadband includes both 3G and 4G.

So in short, while the majority of mobile broadband in emerging markets will be predominatenly mobile handsets, at first 4G mobile broadband is about Notebooks/Laptops/Netbooks; this is especially true for non-emerging markets!

This is BTW great validation of what we are doing at Motive/ALU as we are creating products around mobile broadband: from the activation and support/management, to care…

ceo