The illustration above depicts a (over-simplified) mobile convergence meme, where the user creates and consumes services/data on the web in different ways, and the user is right at the center, depicting the user (mobile context) is what really matters.
For the sake of promoting advancement and minimizing confusion, and setting the right expectations (what is possible and by when), it is important to stop thinking about mobility as (technology) silos: mobile web (browsing) vs. local vs. Widgets, vs. hybrid (local clients with browsing capabilities) clients, and so on. Mobile browsing will not replace local clients or hybrid-clients, or vice-versa; it just won't happen. Mobile Web vs. local vs. other are means to deliver the mobile vision under different circumstances. AJAX won't replace installable apps, and the future is not the browser alone – believing so is being naive.
Let's not confuse “dominating” with “replacing”. Long tail belongs to the mobile web, but that doesn't mean it will replace or displace other. Especially today, where to maximize the handset capabilities (write elaborate mobile clients) you must get “closer” to the handset, meaning local capabilities and resources.
Bottom-line is that both approaches to application and content development-and-consumption are valid and applicable at different points in time, under different use cases, under different requirements. Don't forget that the approach to use is dictated by business/user requirements, such as intended/projected user reach, cost, functionality, security, relationships, business models and many other factors – think "intersection between the business/user needs and technology". At the end what is important is the user, his/her mobile experience, and maximizing the user's mobile context in whatever form is appropriate as influenced by whatever factors – don't limit yourself, don't limit innovation.
ceo