For example, on Verizon’s network in the US, a MIDP phone can listen on a IP port and open connections to other phones, but the capability is not allowed because of the network design. As a programmer, it would be wonderful to design programs in a world where applications on phones could communicate directly to each other, just like servers, pcs, and laptops can now.

(See http://conversations.nokia.com/home/2008/11/way-we-live-nex.html)

On MIDP3: Yes, I’ve predictions on MIDP3 but I left it at something bigger than the release of MIDP3; that a turning point about the future of MIDP3 vs. CDC+OSGi will occur. Yes, MIDP3 will be released in 2009. But the real question is what will be its impact, and is it time to move on to richer platforms. The current setting and process for MIDP3 (and JCP in general) just doesn’t work and for MIDP3 it has been 4 years already since it started while other platforms without the limitations of development and distribution have been introduced into the market. This is not Motorola’s fault but a process fault. A single company or organization must take “ownership” of it. Motorola announced their commitment to WinMo, Android and their proprietary OS; where does that leave MIDP? MIDP3 will be released and should be targeted at the lower-end handsets, and Java-based smart-phones based on CDC+OSGi. It is time. And even for MIDP3 OSGi should be supported.

On Google: I don’t think Google will do anything with MIDP. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see it happening. Perhaps a 3rd party developer will create a runtime (there already is one, but is is pretty weak). My prediction on this: Google will do NOTHING and doesn’t care and doesn’t need MIDP.

On MSFT: I agree on your assessment of Microsoft and Danger. If I would guess, all MSFT really care about is the distribution/back-end platform. With respect to WinMo, MSFT is working hard on the platform, but I really can’t tell right now what its impact and adoption numbers will be when compared to other platforms.

On NFC: I will stick with my predictions; there will be more pilots and trials, but real products are years away — there are next to zero handsets! I’m talking about true NFC deployments here.

Cheers,
ceo

What? No prediction on NFC in the US? No prediction on MIDP3? No prediction on Microsoft & Danger? Ok, here’s my comment / rebuttal prediction…

1. NFC is going to do great in Europe since a large majority of the average-every-day-consumers (Jean-six-pack?) are familiar with smart cards already. NFC will have problems with success in the US due to lack of handsets (like the Nokia 6212) and infrastructure.

2. MIDP 3 is going to be launched at JavaOne 2009, and Google will secretly create an implementation of it for the Android platform. Google is not stupid.

3. Microsoft will do nothing with it’s acquisition of Danger, due to internal battles within the company. Microsoft hates Java, so the big mobile architects at Microsoft want to remove the Java platform of the Danger handsets and replace it with Windows Mobile 7. No decision will be made final until 3Q 2009, so no big changes will happen this year. Microsoft doesn’t want to waste alot of money changing something that already works, just to repeat the Hotmail acquisition.

- Bruce