Goodbye 2008 and welcome 2009 and some predictions on mobility
2008 was a very interesting year for me, with both failures and successes and tons of lessons learned. But life is good. 2009 will be a very interesting year for mobility and handsets and applications. An example of this was yesterday when I was on my way to the Orange Partners Conference. The bus driver taking us to the hotel was bragging about his 3G phone and mobile TV – yes the bus driver! And he had no problem paying for both data and mobile TV. Mobility adoption is happening!
So in the spirit of the 2008 end of the year, below are some of my predictions about mobility and 2009:
- 2009 will be a great year for smartphones; perhaps it will be the year of the smartphone. The top smartphone handset and software players for the next 5 years will be defined in 2009.
- The role of Open Source Software (OSS) will continue to grow within mobile handsets and software. Symbian will go open source. Android is open source. Browsers are open source. Windows Mobile I’m not sure but I won’t be surprised if they go open source as well. Device manufacturers will deliver more sophisticated handsets cheaper due to OSS.
- Related to the above, the mobile browser will become commoditized, thanks to open source. A great example of this is the Steel browser for Android which seems to have been developed by a *single* developer leveraging the Web Kit.
- On user interfaces and smartphones, touch-screens and gestures and accelerometers will be the rule, not the exception (thank you Apple).
- SMS usage/growth will continue and mobile IM usage will remain pretty much flat.
- Twitter will come up with a real revenue model and make some revenue. But it will be plagued by the demons of social networking that killed Trutap: “everyone loves social software, but few would pay for it”.
- Symbian won’t take off (in 2009). Even in open source, which was a great move, Symbian will remain synonymous to Nokia. Few will try it, but at the end will move to Android. It will take a couple of years to fully realize the new Symbian vision.
- The ideal of mobile web having access to local handset functionality won’t be fulfilled yet (to its fullest).
- Android will become stronger and stronger with lots of support from all kinds of network providers and device manufacturers, but these vendors will have a difficult time differentiating themselves.
- Google will start losing its coolness factor.
- Google will introduce a checkout process for its app store, and developers wanting to make money will notice; the Google app store will explode with a large number of applications.
- App stores will continue to have its huge effect on mobile apps and distribution. Due to the revenue and fast distribution models offered by iPhone and soon Android app stores, developers will first target such local applications (vs. mobile web). An even larger number of local/native applications will be created and distributed via app stores for Android and iPhone.
- The BlackBerry app store will be somewhat successful.
- Someone will introduce an app store for mobile web that goes beyond an application catalog. dotMobi will take leadership by going beyond an application catalog but also providinig an associated business/revenue model.
- On the Java ME front, 2009 will be a turning point for the platform: MIDP3 vs. CDC + OSGi, JavaFX.
- The top smartphone platforms for 2009 will be: iPhone, Android, and BlackBerry (for both mobile web and local apps) in the US. (update: I think I might not be putting enough emphasis on Nokia here and their new handsets).
- Location, location, location everywhere in our apps. And end-users will learn to expect it.
- MMS will continue to suck (in the US), due to proprietary implementations and lack of interoperability.
- Lots of noise with WiMAX and LTE, with a few deployments.
- No NFC in 2009.
- Network providers will start delivering services of their own on the web (similar to Google services).
- Network providers will show their love to widgets, and spend resources on widget-related approaches to applications and user interfaces.
Disclaimer: the above are my personal opinions and are not professional advise for business or personal decisions. 
ceo
[...] C. Enrique Oritz – 2009 Predictions are not pretty for Nokia [...]
Enrique,
What? No prediction on NFC in the US? No prediction on MIDP3? No prediction on Microsoft & Danger? Ok, here’s my comment / rebuttal prediction…
1. NFC is going to do great in Europe since a large majority of the average-every-day-consumers (Jean-six-pack?) are familiar with smart cards already. NFC will have problems with success in the US due to lack of handsets (like the Nokia 6212) and infrastructure.
2. MIDP 3 is going to be launched at JavaOne 2009, and Google will secretly create an implementation of it for the Android platform. Google is not stupid.
3. Microsoft will do nothing with it’s acquisition of Danger, due to internal battles within the company. Microsoft hates Java, so the big mobile architects at Microsoft want to remove the Java platform of the Danger handsets and replace it with Windows Mobile 7. No decision will be made final until 3Q 2009, so no big changes will happen this year. Microsoft doesn’t want to waste alot of money changing something that already works, just to repeat the Hotmail acquisition.
- Bruce
Hey Bruce. Thanks.
On MIDP3: Yes, I’ve predictions on MIDP3 but I left it at something bigger than the release of MIDP3; that a turning point about the future of MIDP3 vs. CDC+OSGi will occur. Yes, MIDP3 will be released in 2009. But the real question is what will be its impact, and is it time to move on to richer platforms. The current setting and process for MIDP3 (and JCP in general) just doesn’t work and for MIDP3 it has been 4 years already since it started while other platforms without the limitations of development and distribution have been introduced into the market. This is not Motorola’s fault but a process fault. A single company or organization must take “ownership” of it. Motorola announced their commitment to WinMo, Android and their proprietary OS; where does that leave MIDP? MIDP3 will be released and should be targeted at the lower-end handsets, and Java-based smart-phones based on CDC+OSGi. It is time. And even for MIDP3 OSGi should be supported.
On Google: I don’t think Google will do anything with MIDP. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see it happening. Perhaps a 3rd party developer will create a runtime (there already is one, but is is pretty weak). My prediction on this: Google will do NOTHING and doesn’t care and doesn’t need MIDP.
On MSFT: I agree on your assessment of Microsoft and Danger. If I would guess, all MSFT really care about is the distribution/back-end platform. With respect to WinMo, MSFT is working hard on the platform, but I really can’t tell right now what its impact and adoption numbers will be when compared to other platforms.
On NFC: I will stick with my predictions; there will be more pilots and trials, but real products are years away — there are next to zero handsets! I’m talking about true NFC deployments here.
Cheers,
ceo
@Ceo, while I’m still hoping for NFC will take off (not just for mobile payment, but quick pairing of devices with sensors), it really seems that even the bigger players are confused about how to move forward w NFC.
(See http://conversations.nokia.com/home/2008/11/way-we-live-nex.html)
I wonder if anyone has predictions about mobile phones becoming proper internet citizens? I am thinking about phones being able to communicate with each other over tcp/ip without having to use a network server in between.
For example, on Verizon’s network in the US, a MIDP phone can listen on a IP port and open connections to other phones, but the capability is not allowed because of the network design. As a programmer, it would be wonderful to design programs in a world where applications on phones could communicate directly to each other, just like servers, pcs, and laptops can now.
I’m not sure how the Verizon network allows for that. You mean over Bluetooth or Wi-Fi? Things are changing, for example, you can see web servers on Nokia and Android phones. What you are saying should happen assuming the use cases are appealing enough…