About Mobility

Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Penetration

With 42% penetration in 2008 and 53% penetration by 2014 worldwide.

US Mobile Subscriber Penetration

With 88% penetration in 2008 and 104% penetration by 2014 in the United States. The above numbers for the US matches the penetration numbers reported by CTIA for 2008 of 88%; as I blogged the other day, “as of today, CTIA reports there are 269,605,965 subscribers in the US, while the US census shows there are 305,477,551 people in the US (Dec 24 2008)”. By 2014 US subscriber based is projected to be past 100%.

Yes the above numbers for the US are lower and slower than other parts of the world, but taking into consideration the size of the US population, it really is a great penetration (i.e., it is much harder and takes longer to penetrate a very large population).

There is a correlation between population size and subscriber penetration. To show this below you can see the correlation between “advanced country” as defined by Tomi Ahonen’s in his book Mobile as the 7th Mass Media (a great book that I recommend) vs. size of population, with Japan being the exception; the list below follows the order of “Advanced Mobile Countries” table in page 285 of the book:

• Japan Population: 127,433,494 (July 2007 est.)
• Korea, South Population: 49,044,790 (July 2007 est.)
• Italy Population: 58,147,733 (July 2007 est.)
• Austria Population: 8,199,783 (July 2007 est.)
• United Kingdom Population: 60,776,238 (July 2007 est.)
• Finland Population: 5,238,460 (July 2007 est.)
• Israel Population: 7,112,359 (July 2008 est.)
•         :
• Singapore Population: 4,553,009 (July 2007 est.)
•         :
• Hong Kong Population: 6,980,412 (July 2007 est.)
•         :
• France Population: 64,057,792 (July 2008 est.)
•         :

The following countries are not in the list of advanced countries, but have the largest population:

• China Population: 1,321,851,888 (July 2007 est.)
• India Population: 1,129,866,154 (July 2007 est.)
• United States Population: 301,139,947 (July 2007 est.) — in Texas alone as of 2006 there were 23,507,783

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Source: Frost & Sullivan | Visions 2009 Paradigm Shifts in Mobile & Wireless Communications | J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D., CIA World Factbook, Fact Monster, US Census Bureau

A recent report by the PEW Internet Project titled Networked Workers reveals a couple of interesting numbers on texting usage in the USA:

General Numbers on Technology Usage by “Networked Workers”

1. 93% own a cell phone, compared with 78% of all American adults
2. 85% own a desktop computer, compared with 65% of all adults
3. 61% own a laptop computer, compared with 39% of all adults
4. 27% own a Blackberry, Palm or other personal digital assistant, compared with 13% of all adults

Great mobile handset penetration numbers, but I would have thought it was higher. As of today, CTIA reports there are 269,605,965 subscribers in the US, while the US census shows there are 305,477,551 people in the US (Dec 24 2008).

On Americans Who Use Text Messaging

1. 66% of those ages 30-49 use text messaging
2. 15% say that at least half of their exchanges throughout the day are work-related
3. 28% say they exchange text messages with friends and family at least once a day while at work
4. 17% exchange messages with colleagues, according to Pew Internet Project

Event the older adults are catching up to texting. This is happening faster than I was expecting…

On BlackBerry Users Who Use Text Messaging

1. 59% of cell phone or Blackberry owners use text messaging
2. 47% say that all or most of their text messaging is personal
3. 2% say that all or most is work-related
4. 9% say that their text messaging is evenly split between work-related and personal exchanges

Even on BlackBerry, an email-focused device, texting is becoming an important communication channel.

On Personal vs. Work Text Messaging

1. 28% say all are personal
2. 16% say most are personal
3. 25% say about half and half personal/work
4. 21% say most are for work
5. 11% say all are for work

I was surprised that work-texting is always as high as all personal or half personal/work. That is an interesting trend.

Other information from the report says that “Nearly half of all working Americans do at least some work from home” — that’s right, almost half of Americans are all workaholics!

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According to Gartner, worldwide smartphone sales reached its lowest growth rate with 11.5% increase in 3rd quarter of 2008. It also says that Nokia is the #1 smartphone manufacturer/seller:

Worldwide smartphone sales to end-users totalled 36.5 million units in the third quarter of 2008, an 11.5 per cent increase from the same period in 2007.
:

Nokia maintained its No. 1 position with 42.4 per cent market share in the third quarter of 2008, but for the first time it recorded a decline in sales of 3 per cent year-on-year (see Table 1). “Nokia is feeling the pressure from increased competition in the consumer smartphone market,” said Ms Cozza.

Table: Worldwide: Preliminary Smartphone Sales to End Users by Vendor, 3Q08 (Thousands of Units)

I believe Nokia’s lack of touchscreen handset that competed with the iPhone and Android (and others) really harmed them in 2008, and that releasing a touch-based handset in 2009 should be a top priority for Nokia.

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2008 was a very interesting year for me, with both failures and successes and tons of lessons learned. But life is good. 2009 will be a very interesting year for mobility and handsets and applications. An example of this was yesterday when I was on my way to the Orange Partners Conference. The bus driver taking us to the hotel was bragging about his 3G phone and mobile TV - yes the bus driver! And he had no problem paying for both data and mobile TV. Mobility adoption is happening!

So in the spirit of the 2008 end of the year, below are some of my predictions about mobility and 2009:

1. 2009 will be a great year for smartphones; perhaps it will be the year of the smartphone. The top smartphone handset and software players for the next 5 years will be defined in 2009.
2. The role of Open Source Software (OSS) will continue to grow within mobile handsets and software. Symbian will go open source. Android is open source. Browsers are open source. Windows Mobile I’m not sure but I won’t be surprised if they go open source as well. Device manufacturers will deliver more sophisticated handsets cheaper due to OSS.
3. Related to the above, the mobile browser will become commoditized, thanks to open source. A great example of this is the Steel browser for Android which seems to have been developed by a *single* developer leveraging the Web Kit.
4. On user interfaces and smartphones, touch-screens and gestures and accelerometers will be the rule, not the exception (thank you Apple).
5. SMS usage/growth will continue and mobile IM usage will remain pretty much flat.
6. Twitter will come up with a real revenue model and make some revenue. But it will be plagued by the demons of social networking that killed Trutap: “everyone loves social software, but few would pay for it”.
7. Symbian won’t take off (in 2009). Even in open source, which was a great move, Symbian will remain synonymous to Nokia. Few will try it, but at the end will move to Android. It will take a couple of years to fully realize the new Symbian vision.
8. The ideal of mobile web having access to local handset functionality won’t be fulfilled yet (to its fullest).
9. Android will become stronger and stronger with lots of support from all kinds of network providers and device manufacturers, but these vendors will have a difficult time differentiating themselves.
10. Google will start losing its coolness factor.
11. Google will introduce a checkout process for its app store, and developers wanting to make money will notice; the Google app store will explode with a large number of applications.
12. App stores will continue to have its huge effect on mobile apps and distribution. Due to the revenue and fast distribution models offered by iPhone and soon Android app stores, developers will first target such local applications (vs. mobile web). An even larger number of local/native applications will be created and distributed via app stores for Android and iPhone.
13. The BlackBerry app store will be somewhat successful.
14. Someone will introduce an app store for mobile web that goes beyond an application catalog. dotMobi will take leadership by going beyond an application catalog but also providinig an associated business/revenue model.
15. On the Java ME front, 2009 will be a turning point for the platform: MIDP3 vs. CDC + OSGi, JavaFX.
16. The top smartphone platforms for 2009 will be: iPhone, Android, and BlackBerry (for both mobile web and local apps) in the US. (update: I think I might not be putting enough emphasis on Nokia here and their new handsets).
17. Location, location, location everywhere in our apps. And end-users will learn to expect it.
18. MMS will continue to suck (in the US), due to proprietary implementations and lack of interoperability.
19. Lots of noise with WiMAX and LTE, with a few deployments.
20. No NFC in 2009.
21. Network providers will start delivering services of their own on the web (similar to Google services).
22. Network providers will show their love to widgets, and spend resources on widget-related approaches to applications and user interfaces.

Disclaimer: the above are my personal opinions and are not professional advise for business or personal decisions.

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Interesting numbers from comScore M:Metrics on mobile consumption/usage for 3 months ending August 2008; see press release:

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When writing software for the BlackBerry platform, one of the common questions that come up is “what BB software version (and related JDE) should I be using?” The following helps answer this question:

(Source: Introduction to BlackBerry® Java® Development)

Not shown above are the following BB software versions to platforms mapping:

• 4.6 is targeted at Bold-family of devices
• 4.7 is target at Storm-family of devices

To help you visualize the model numbers listed on the diagram above, the following image shows a compilation of all current BlackBerry handsets as of November 2008:

(Click to enlarge)

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One small step for T-Mobile, a bigger step for end-users…

It would be great if all network providers dropped the “double opt-in” requirements that makes campaign certification (and re-certification over time) a pain in the neck, not to mention expensive. Instead, companies that offer services over texting should (vs. being mandated to) follow the guidelines defined by the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), which are guidelines that will continue to evolve over time, as needed by the market needs.

Wouldn’t it be great if “double opt-in” was a general user-profile/settable preference that is set once but that it worked across all campaigns (users can always STOP the service at any time). Imagine a setting that the user can set once on their first message ever sent by the user, asking if she would like to enforce double opt-in or not on all future texting service notifications (as a side-note, double opt-in is only really needed for Pushes/notifications and not User-initiated requests).

…hm, so that might be an idea, a web-based API to query for the double opt-in setting, perhaps an extension to OpenSocial or something similar? Of course, I am over-simplifying this, as there are other implications, such as security, and where would this setting reside? At the carrier? At the message aggregator? At the user’s “global profile of choice”?

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[Via Mobile Marketing Watch]

…or, the Network Providers/Operators must be having a blast.

The network providers are doing just fine… new cool handsets here and there, handset exclusivity on certain networks, message usage is up, data consumption is up, new services are coming up, very cool applications from web to native, developers and more developers, and prices are up…

Not too bad for the current state of the economy, don’t you agree?

• Mobile Messaging Reaches Record-Breaking Numbers (ReadWriteWeb)
• Operators to Launch NFC-Based Mobile Payment Services (PR News Wire)
• Growth In Data Revenue Nearly Offsets Plunge in Voice Revenues (mocoNews.net)
• T-Mobile USA Data Price Increases - Bandwidth Issue or Greed? (The WAP Review)

I’ll tell you, mobility is the place to be…

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The iPhone and Android platforms have validated a number of things; below is a list with some of such things:

iPhone:

• Applications are at the center of next generation of handsets.
• That software, not hardware, is the main driver and differentiator.
• Touch-screens rock! Everyone knew it, but Apple showed the world how.
• The mobile web is important, that there is no One Web, and that handset-specific customized mobile websites will continue to be built.
• That influencing the network provider and changing their game-field is possible.
• While the mobile web is great, today richer and more integrated applications need to be native.
• That users will download native applications, if a better way to discover and download applications is provided (i.e. App Stores)
• That closed systems is a sucky idea.

Android:

• That mobile-handsets can be based on open source and Linux, and be successful.
• Integration with services on the web (i.e. application infrastructures) matters a whole lot and is huge; and that this is especially true if such is provided “out of box”.
• Keyboards rock, but a software keyboard should also be provided.
• It is going to be a hell of a challenge for handset manufacturers that use Android to differentiate themselves; how will they if the software is the same? UI? Hardware designs?
• That open systems is a great idea.
• It re-validated points already validated by the iPhone: applications (and developers) are key to success, that it is about the software, the mobile web is important, that richer and more integrated apps need to be native, that users will download native app if a better way to discover and download is provided (app stores)
• That 3G can be impractical as it sucks-up your battery dry.

Other:

• That developers will develop in whatever programming language is necessary, even if it is Objective-C.
• Fragmentation? Who cares!

Anything else?

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Andrea Trasatti wrote that Everyone wants an App Store these days.

Yes, very true.

I was talking about this with Brian Fling at Mobile 2.0.

Apple, Google, BlackBerry. The number of independent vendors. Next, network operators…

App Stores are the new Deck. But a very deep deck. A searchable deck. A deck-catalog.

The new deck gives or moves the power to the subscriber/end-user, who can search (discover) and decide what application (content) to install or ignore, and even say which applications are great, OK or bad thus having a direct influence how a given application will do on the store/market.

The new deck makes developer’s life much easier and with better returns.

The new deck is about the ecosystem, making participation and related business model effective and attractive to everyone.

Next, future mobile stores will go beyond local/native applications and also offer web applications, widgets, and other types of mobile content.

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Over-the-Air (OTA) updates make sense; no need to connect to the PC to download needed updates.

At least that is the theory…

In practicality, OTA updates translate to delays, sometimes for weeks.

Because OTA updates burn resources, here I refer to bandwidth, this puts the network provider on an odd situation: should they be prompt with their updates and made them available immediately, potentially slowing down and/or consuming precious network resources at peak times? Or should they schedule updates at off-peak times or at small windows of times across all the subscribers, meaning it will take longer to hit all subscribers, with some subscribers not getting needed updates until weeks after it is available?

The answer, in addition to OTA updates, network providers also provide Web to PC to Side-loading of updates. This will satisfy those subscribers who want to install updates ASAP, with the added benefit of relieving the network provider from having to push the updates thus saving network resources, while those subscribers who don’t care or prefer automatic updates, can wait for the OTA update to occur.

As a side note: should network providers be liable for not getting updates out fast enough to handsets, allowing handsets to be exposed to hackers and whatnot?

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From Recession Delays Motorola Cellphone Spinoff, More Cuts Coming (MOT) (Sillicon Alley Insider):

8:24 Have had too much complexity. Today over 20 combinations of software, silicon, and UI platforms. This has resulted in high costs and portfolio gaps in 3G, smartphones, very low tier.
:
No longer planning to develop certain OSes. Will focus on Android, Windows Mobile, and P2K. ODM solutions for low and very low tier. Will no longer offer new OSes on internally developed Linux Java or Symbian UIQ. $370 million of charges on inventory write down.

The above is actually a very good thing. Focus, focus, focus. Less OSes translate to less maintenance overhead. And leveraging Open OSes mean leveraging others (i.e. cheaper) to build a high-quality product.

I think Android has fallen from the Sky and just at the right time for Motorola.

Motorola can focus on creating strong H/W pieces based on Android, while riding the Android wave and making things cheaper.

If I was Motorola, I would design a common platform, a foundation for all of their handsets, and drop all OSes except for one, Android, as it is (or should be) cheaper, it is based on Linux (and Motorola likes Linux), has a great UI (Motorola is not great at UIs), and leverages the Google infrastructure (GMail, Contacts, Maps, etc) allowing for highly functional handsets right out of the box. I would also use a powerful design company such as Frog Design for their industrial H/W design, and then concentrate on the manufacturing aspects.

I’ve the feeling positive things will be happening for Motorola, if they continue working on the right things: re-organizing and cutting costs/expenses, working on the right technologies, taking advantage of their strengths (manufacturing) and culture, and focus, focus, focus.

Last but not least, all of this begs the question: what is the future of MIDP3? Motorola is the MIDP3 spec lead, and the spec is pretty much ready to go, complete. But it seems for obvious reasons that MIDP3 is not on Motorola’s top/high priority list. Will Motorola drop MIDP3 or will Motorola have a MIDP3-runtime on top of Android? That would be interesting. Let’s wait and see.

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A reminder that next Monday Nov 3rd is the 2008 Mobile 2.0 event in San Francisco. The event has two tracks, a day long Business/VC-oriented track and a Builder Track in the afternoon. I’ll be charing the first panel of the Builder Track titled “Mobile Web vs. Applications vs. Widgets”.

The online registration is open, and I hope to see you there!

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Following Dean Terry (therefore) via Twitter, two interesting quotes caught me eye… as I couldn’t agree more:

Mark Louison (Nokia):

…user friendly, useful, beautiful applications will drive the entire mobile space - not hardware, bandwidth, etc.

Roland Shah (Ericsson):

…the power in the mobile space is moving to the consumer.

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The Texas Wireless Summit, organized by the Austin Wireless Alliance is in two weeks, October 14-16, 2008.

You can register at http://www.twsummit.com/register/ to attend and interact with industry leaders and learn about the future of the wireless industry.

As a special offer to friends and partners of the Austin Wireless Alliance and the Wireless Networking and Communications Group you are eligible to use code TWS08100 to receive $100 off of the standard admission rate!

The theme of this year’s Summit is “Open” and keynote presentations and panel discussions on the topic will address the shift that the industry is experiencing towards open networks, platforms and operating systems, applications, and new open business models.

In addition, 2008 Texas Wireless Summit will address the critical political and regulatory environment that underpins many of the opportunities and challenges that the industry will face as a result of this shift.

Visit http://www.twsummit.com for more details on the Event Program and Sponsorship Opportunities.

Confirmed Keynotes

• Arun Bhikshesvaran, Vice President Strategy & CTO North America, Ericsson Inc.
• John Donovan, Chief Technology Officer, AT&T
• Dr. Brian L. Evans, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Wireless Networking and Communications Group, The University of Texas at Austin
• Dr. Edward Knightly, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rice University
• Tony Lewis, VP of Open Development, Verizon Wireless
• Mark Louison, President, Nokia Inc.
• Yoram Solomon, Senior Director, Worldwide Standards and Technology Strategy, CTO Office, Wireless Terminals Business Unit, Semiconductor Group, Texas Instruments

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